For April's Applied Technology Monthly Top 3 picks, we maintain ZRAN and add TSYS and NICE. We are removing GEOY and PLT, though we maintain our Overweight rating for both stocks.
ZRAN/OW - Maintaining as a Top 3 pick. ZRAN decreased 5.1%in March. ZRAN may be at an inflection point. Years of investment in silicon and software have yielded a portfolio of solutions for the next generation of connected CE devices. We believe the stock is undervalued, factoring in $7.60 per share of cash, making ZRAN an interesting long trade heading into a cyclical recovery in mid-CY10, but we also believe this stock could emerge as a good long-term holding for investors that want exposure to DTV conversion in Europe, HD deployment in emerging markets, growth in OTT Video, internet media devices, the connected home and Blu-Ray. Price target $15.
TSYS/OW - Adding to Top 3. TSYS has traded down 24% YTD (S&P500 up 4.9%), in part due to concerns that growth in the acquired NIM TBT Navigation business will stall owing to the introduction of free TBT solutions by Nokia and Google, we believe. This underestimates the critical role that a branded TBT solution plays for the wireless operator, in our view, and hence we think the sell-off is unjustified; in short, we believe the NIM business continues to grow according to plan ($65-75mm of revenue in 2010E). We touched base with management and believe the company remains on track to post PF EBITDA growth of over 60% in 2010 on revenue growth of over 40%, inclusive of acquisitions. We think the stock is significantly undervalued. Price target $12.
NICE/OW - Adding to Top 3. We believe NICE's 20% y/y growth in orders in 4Q09 is carrying over into 1Q10, adding to record backlog. The Actimize business is driving a good portion of the growth, which could provide potential upside to NICE's margins. The segment enjoys margins above the corporate average and could expand further with scale. We also believe that NICE has more mega deals in the pipeline within the Security segment, beyond the 8-digit deals already announced. Price target $38.50.
GEOY/OW and PLT/OW - Removing from Top 3. GEOY increased 23.9% and PLT increased 10.0% in March. We maintain our Overweight rating for both but believe better near-term opportunities can be found elsewhere in our coverage universe.



print
send to friend
add to favorites











